So last week, Jeff Zanetta rolled into town and went 3-1 with his picks, while I managed a 2-2 record.
Yes, I lost at my own game on my own blog about a sport I cover pretty well every day. Believe me, I’ve already made fun of myself for this, but only a little because it’s not like last week’s main event was a slam dunk pick; Travis Browne was favoured, messed up his leg, and got slugged by Antonio Silva. Sometimes you’re right, sometimes you’re wrong. Last week, I was wrong.
I’m hoping it doesn’t happen again today.
This week, long-time reader John Oakes is stopping by with predictions, and I’m going to keep mine real brief because (1) we have pretty similar thoughts, and (2) I’ve mangled my back/shoulder and sitting up at the computer isn’t such a comfortable feeling right now.
Welcome to the party, Mr. Oakes.
Here are our picks.
These are the Punch Drunk Predictions.
Message from John Oakes:
All of my articles, fight predictions and betting guides can be found at Cagescience.com. Also you can follow me on Twitter: @cagescience. Thanks to ESK for allowing me to participate. This is a real honor. Enjoy the fights everyone!!
* * * * * * * *
Anderson Silva (32-4) vs. Stephan Bonnar (14-7)
John Oakes: Obviously, this is the easiest fight to call. There is nothing to say about this fight except it makes me happy and somehow proud to be an MMA fan. The only thing I wonder about is if Anderson will be relaxed and have fun with Bonnar or will he put him away ASAP to avoid any possibility of embarrassment. I will be rooting for Bonnar to weather the storm and maybe get a few licks in of his own, but that is just a hope. Either way, this will be good fun.
Prediction: Anderson Silva by TKO, Round 2
ESK: Sure it’s a mismatch, but I’m happy to watch the best fighter in the history of the sport compete. Silva should be able to have his way with Bonnar, who is a tough sonofabitch, but that whole “he’s never been stopped” tag dies tonight in Brazil.
Prediction: Anderson Silva by TKO, Round 2
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (33-7-1, 1 NC) vs. Dave Herman (21-4)
Oakes: This is a great match-up. Both of these heavyweights are very dangerous, but are coming off of losses, two in the case of Herman, though I think both of the stoppages were a bit early. Can Herman avoid a three-fight skid and take out one of the greatest heavyweights of all time? What Herman has going for him is decent power, good speed, a little creativity and good agility. Herman feints well and always presses the action, but in doing so, he stays within his opponent’s punching range. He is not a huge fan of dancing in and out, and counter-attacking. You will see him walk toward Nogueira with his hands splayed about 6-18 inches farther from his chin than traditional form dictates. By pressing the action, he may get to decide the pace of the fight. Lastly, Herman has solid wrestling skills in the event that Nogueira wants to take him down, which might help him keep it standing, increasing his chances.
Everyone is asking how Nogueira will look after recouping from a humerus break in his last fight with Frank Mir back in December 2011. In my opinion, the fighting principle at work here is this: arms break, but indomitable wills do not. Nogueria is a legend in the sport for his tenacity and resolve. He does not quit. Nogueria is edging into his senior citizen years in MMA, but he is still a killer. Look how he put Brendan Schaub down and almost KO’d Frank Mir. When I take my eyes off of his wicked back scar long enough, I see hands that seek any hole in his opponent’s defense, and Herman leaves very large gaps in his. Add that to his ability to demolish Herman on the ground, and I begin to get clarity into how to call this fight. On the ground and on the feet, I see Nogueira putting Herman away.
Prediction: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by TKO (no round indicated)
ESK: The deciding factor here – for me – is whether Herman comes into this one focused on getting a win and fighting a smart fight. That is a huge question mark, and considering his three UFC bouts have all had a “we’ll see what happens” feel to them for Herman, I’m siding with the Brazilian legend here. Despite his advanced age and injury situation, Nogueira (1) still has the power to drop Herman, and (2) might want to show the talkative young heavyweight that jiu-jitsu is definitely not a myth.
Prediction: Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira by TKO, Round 2
Glover Teixeira (18-2) vs. Fabio Maldonado (18-5)
Oakes: Fabio Maldonado is a late replacement set to fight Glover Teixeira in what may end up resembling some sort of human sacrifice to a monstrous god, hungry for blood. OK – maybe it isn’t that much of a mismatch; Maldonado could have his lucky night. He is, after all, still a dangerous fighter. But here, I am letting the hype train roll. Teixeira should have been in the UFC a long time ago. I am willing to be surprised here, but am looking forward to a dominant Glover Teixeira.
Prediction: Glover Teixeira by TKO, Round 1
ESK: Maldonado is a tough out, but I think Teixeira is on a different level than his countryman. His late arrival to the UFC wasn’t a “he’s not good enough/ready” situation as much as it was “he’s got VISA issues,” and the fact that they were willing to line him up opposite a big name (Quinton “Rampage” Jackson) should tell you everything you need to know. Teixeira is a more well-rounded fighter, and should drag this to the ground to earn a submission finish for the second consecutive fight.
Prediction: Glover Teixeira by Submission, Round 1
Jon Fitch (23-4-1, 1 NC) vs. Erick Silva (14-2, 1 NC)
Oakes: Jon Fitch is one of the hardest working fighters in the UFC. He has said that he has no special talent except for a drive to put in the work necessary to win. Fitch is the definition of a grinder; he likes his wrestling and lots of it. You will not be surprised to know that he is tied for having the most wins by decision in the UFC. Apart from being Johny Hendricks’s stepping stone into contention and GSP’s first title defense (the second time around), Fitch has cut a path of his own through the welterweight ranks. Still, Fitch hasn’t notched a win since August 2010. For him to get back to his winning ways, he will have to defeat one of the hottest prospects in the sport.
The UFC is betraying their feelings about Erick Silva quite plainly. This fight is either a huge gift to Silva (a la Jon Jones) or it is too much too soon. Erick Silva is hype-worthy though. After seeing his last three fights, I would pay to watch him fight even if this weren’t a stacked card. He combines the intuition and speed of other Brazilian champs with the ferocity of a pitbull. I reviewed BJ Penn vs John Fitch, after seeing Erick Silva demolish three opponents in a row, and I felt like I was watching a fight in slo-mo. I would see an opening for a knee, then BJ would throw one at about half the speed Silva would have. Is Silva really that good or has it all been an illusion?
Against Charlie Brenneman, Silva proved how well he could fare against a skilled and determined wrestler. Clearly, Fitch is a better wrestler than Brenneman, begging the question if Fitch’s pedigree and constancy will be enough to halt the meteoric rise of Silva. As a seasoned betting man, everything in me cringes at taking the hype over the constant, but I have to say here that Silva will probably light Fitch up.
Prediction: Erick Silva by TKO (no round given)
ESK: I really like Silva as a prospect, but his progression feels hurried for me. Luis Ramos, Carlo Prater, Charlie Brenneman… Jon Fitch? Prater and Brenneman have already be let go, and Ramos is 0-2 inside the Octagon. Despite his lack of results over the last year, Fitch is still one of the top 5 welterweights in the world, and a massive step up in competition for Silva. Can the young Brazilian make the leap? Sure, it’s entirely possible, but unlike Mr. Oakes, I’m going to side with the proven, established veteran who is healthy, focused, and a hungry to get a win over the up-and-comer. That said, Silva could make me look bad.
Prediction: Jon Fitch by Fitching (Grind You Down, Pound You Up Unanimous Decision)
Phil Davis (9-1, 1 NC) vs. Wagner Prado (8-0, 1 NC)
Oakes: From the videos I was able to find of Prado, homie can knock people out. He is fast and wily too. He was really stalking Phil Davis in their first meeting before the eye poke. Phil Davis is an exceptional wrestler and has submitted the likes of Alexander Gustafsson and Tim Boetsch, and is quite under-appreciated in the LHW division.
In the first fight, Joe Rogan said that Prado’s corner was very confident in his wrestling ability, which he would ostensibly want to use to stuff Davis’ takedowns. Davis is no slouch in the striking department, but it is reasonable to say that this ends up a striker vs. grappler match-up. It remains to be seen if Prado really does have the ability to stop Davis’ takedowns. On the other hand, Davis has faced and beaten some of the most dangerous strikers in the LHW division. I am hesitant to declare an upset here. I need to take the surer path, even though Prado is capable of finishing Davis on a good night. This could be a pretty electric fight, despite the lack of attention it is getting.
Prediction: Phil Davis by Submission (no round given)
ESK: People seem to forget that Davis stormed his way to five straight wins in the Octagon (in 13 months) before losing to Rashad Evans last January. As Mr. Oakes mentioned, one of those wins came against Alexander Gustafsson, who is now Davis’ part-time teammate and on the verge of a title shot. Remind me again who Prado has beaten? This is one of those cases where until the Brazilian prospect who has dominated marginal competition shows me he’s able to beat a UFC opponent, there is no way for me to pick him. Additionally, I think Davis remains the best bet to potentially unseat Jon Jones from the light heavyweight throne, and he’ll use this bout to remind people that he’s still a contender.
Prediction: Phil Davis by Unanimous Decision
Demian Maia (16-4) vs. Rick Story (14-5)
Oakes: Demian Maia’s decision losses to Anderson Silva, Chris Weidman and Mark Munoz are not exactly the worst blemishes a fighter could have on his record. Now at welterweight, Maia won his debut, looking great against Dong Hyun Kim, and is always a game opponent. The same might be said for Story, who threatens at all times. If it goes the distance, Maia’s superior grappling should be the deciding factor. If it finishes? I still think it would end in a Maia submission before a Story KO.
This is just one of those great match-ups where the fight can end any place, at any time. But, what can I say? I still buy into Rorion Gracie’s fighting philosophies that brought the UFC into existence in the first place. If you can put a striker on the ground, all their boxing skills go out the door. Maia proved he could do just that against Kim in his welterweight debut, and with others at middleweight. I’m looking forward to seeing Maia show us some elite Jiu Jitsu, do well at Welterweight, and maybe shake things up a little for a few years before retirement.
Prediction: Demian Maia by Submission (no round given)
ESK: Even though it ended quickly and under strange circumstances, I really liked what I saw from Maia in his welterweight debut. Kim is a powerful judoka and very difficult fighter to take down, and Maia made it look easy. Not sure whether he’d have finished him in the first had Kim not gotten injured, but Maia in dominant position on the ground is a bad place to be in. I like Story and think he’s a tough out, but I’m a grappling nut like Mr. Oakes, and I think we’re at the start of another “Demian Maia submits everyone” run like we saw when he started his UFC career.
Prediction: Demian Maia by Submission, Round 1
* * * * * * * *
Preliminary Card Predictions
Rony Jason over Sam Sicilia — Submission, Round 1
Gleison Tibau over Francisco Trinaldo — Unanimous Decision
Diego Brandao over Joey Gambino — TKO, Round 1
Sergio Moraes over Renee Fortin — Submission, Round 2
Luis Cane over Chris Camozzi — TKO, Round 1
Reza Madadi over Cristiano Marcello — TKO, Round 1
Main Card Record: 100-62-1
Overall Record: 213-134-2, 1 NC
* * * * * * * *
Keep up with the latest from Keyboard Kimura by joining the Facebook page.
If you’re on Twitter, be sure to follow me (@spencerkyte) for even more MMA talk… and all kinds of randomness too.
