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UFC 139: Main Card Breakdown & Analysis

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Just like last week, I’m going to give the main event showdown between “Shogun” Rua and Dan Henderson the full treatment on Friday.

Today, I want to introduce you to the other four fights on the pay-per-view portion of the card, and let you know what I think you can come to expect from these eight athletes on Saturday night.

Wanderlei Silva (35-11-1, 1 NC) vs. Cung Le (7-1)

As much as this would have been an even better fight four years ago when both men were closer to their fighting prime, it’s still an interesting clash of styles that could produce fireworks on Saturday night.

Silva has been in a steady decline since coming to the UFC full-time following the fall of Pride. While he notched a couple wins, he’s spent far more time on the business end of a beating in those six fights, and was put to sleep by a serious of Chris Leben uppercuts in just 27 seconds last time out.

The former Strikeforce middleweight champion Le has spent more time in front of a camera than he has inside of the cage in recent years, working to establish his after-fighting career before bringing his fighting career to a close officially. When he has competed, the San Shou stylist is exciting to watch, throwing kicks-a-plenty, many of the spinning variety. Though he has just eight MMA bouts on his record, Le was also 16-0 as a professional kickboxer, and has won 18 of his 23 combined bouts in the two by way of finish.

This one comes down to which of these two aging strikers is best equipped to deal with the approach offered by their opponent.

Silva will — as always — look to charge ahead, fists flying, eager to connect with Le’s chin. If he’s able to connect, Silva still has the power to put Le away. But getting inside to land on the button will be tough, as Le does a good job of using his kicks to keep his opponents in space, and throws them with enough force that he’s able to stop the fight with a well-placed boot to the body.

Conditioning could become a factor in this fight, as Le hasn’t competed since June 2010. While I expect him to be in good shape, he’s a 39-year-old who has been focusing on acting for the last three years really, and while he’s not as violently dangerous as years gone by, he’s still fighting “The Axe Murderer,” and if he’s not prepared to go the distance, Silva’s superior cardio could play a role as the fight continues.

Urijah Faber (25-5) vs. Brian Bowles (10-1)

This bantamweight match-up will determine who will next challenge Dominick Cruz for the 135-pound title.

For all those who question how Faber can return to title contention so quickly after having just lost to Cruz in July, the former featherweight champ made a very valid point when I spoke to him for a piece on UFC.com earlier in the month: it really comes down to two things, (1) who else are you going to give it to?, (2) and it’s not his fault none of these other guys can beat him.

Despite his poor record in title fights over the last three years, Faber is unbeaten in non-title contests in that span as well. Back down at a more natural weight class for him, Faber is one of the more powerful fighters in the bantamweight ranks, and still brings the same explosive and dynamic offensive weapons to the cage that made him a world champion and the face of the WEC.

However this fight with Bowles is probably the toughest of his non-title fights in recent years.

Bowles lost the bantamweight title to Cruz in March 2010, a broken hand forcing him to retire following the second round. He’s been on a mission to regain the title every since, dominating Damacio Page in his first bout following the loss before scoring a unanimous decision win over Takeya Mizugaki at UFC 132.

These two are very similar in what they bring to the cage. Faber has the superior wrestling and more diverse striking approach, but Bowles packs more power in his punches and seems to be the more tenacious of the two as well. Where Faber finds his spots, times his takedowns, and executes his game plan, Bowles gets after it, throwing every punch with the intention of knocking his opponent out.

Bowles’ ability to defend the takedown should be the determining factor in this fight. I expect Faber to try to use his wrestling in the same manner he did against Eddie Wineland at UFC 128 — timing the takedowns perfectly to avoid punches and grind out the bulk of the rounds on the ground. If he can force Faber to stay on his feet, Bowles increases his chances of landing one of his power shots, and earning the chance to try to reclaim the bantamweight belt.

Martin Kampmann (17-5) vs. Rick Story (13-4)

This is a tremendous welterweight match-up that is flying ridiculously under the radar because of all the upheaval at the top of the division.

Prior to facing Charlie Brenneman in June, Story was the new darling of the division, fresh of his win over Thiago Alves at UFC 130 and riding a six-fight winning streak. Brenneman derailed that run and sent Story back into the congested 7-15 portion of the division, but a win here puts him back on the fringes of contention.

I’ve come to think of Story as a more aggressive Jon Fitch; a physically strong wrestler who can dominate an opponent with his grappling, but one who also likes to go toe-to-toe throwing bombs. He did a very good job of mixing the two in his fights with Alves and Johny Hendricks, and would be best served to follow the same approach with Kampmann here.

There might not be a more frustrating fighter in the welterweight division than Kampmann, and I say that with a great deal of respect. “The Hitman” is one of the most technically clean strikers in the 170-pound ranks, but all too often he gets sucked in to fighting his opponent’s fight. When that happens, he usually ends up on the losing end of things. It happened against Diego Sanchez (lost a horrible decision), Jake Shields (lost), and Paul Daley (knocked out), each of his three losses to date at welterweight.

When he sticks to his guns, Kampmann is a very good kickboxer who can pick you apart in space. He throws crisp, clean punches with force, as Sanchez’s bloody visage proved when they fought in March. The long-time Xtreme Couture member also has a very underrated submission game, and having previously competed at middleweight, he’s deceptively strong.

Everything about this fight comes down to Kampmann’s approach for me. If he uses his footwork, keeps moving, and works the jab and the 1-2, he can pick Story apart all night. The trouble is that Story won’t stop coming forward the whole night — he’s never been stopped in his career — and will be looking to make this fight messy at every turn. Should Kampmann get sucked into a scrap, Story has the power to put him out or grind him out on the ground.

Stephan Bonnar (13-7) vs. Kyle Kingsbury (11-2, 1 NC)

This is just a good, clean, fun fight. Neither guy is remotely near title contention and it doesn’t matter; they’re here to kick off the pay-per-view with an entertaining fight, and I’m pretty confident they’ll do just that.

There was a point where I used to try to argue before every Stephan Bonnar fight that he didn’t belong in the UFC any longer. I stopped fighting that battle a couple fights ago and have learned to accept two truths about “The American Psycho”:

(1) He’s not going anywhere, ever.
(2) He always gives an honest effort, and it’s usually pretty damn entertaining.

Kingsbury has been on fire since losing to Tom Lawlor on the Season 8 Finale of The Ultimate Fighter. He’s won four straight fights since then and transformed himself from a doughy, relatively inexperienced hopeful to a chiseled mass of athleticism who has shown some serious potential in the last year.

He absolutely demolished Ricardo Romero at UFC 126, knocking him out with a massive punch just 21 seconds into the bout, and came away with a split decision win over former professional boxer and knockout artist Fabio Maldonado in June at the Ultimate Fighter 13 Finale.

To quote wrestling broadcaster Jim Ross, “this one should be a slobberknocker.”



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